@fulltimemclarenfan 's predictions

This article in its entireity was written by @fulltimemclarenfan who posts F1 related content on Instagram

2026 F1 predictions

2026 is the biggest rule change in Formula 1 since the introduction of the turbo hybrid engines in 2014. Therefore, making predictions is more difficult as there is no previous baseline. However, with 3 weeks of testing and information from inside the paddock, you can get a general idea about the pecking order. I am assuming there are no mid season changes so I will only rank the 22 drivers due to start in Australia. With that being said, here are my 2026 Drivers and Constructors Championship predictions:

Drivers:

P22 – Valtteri Bottas

For his 2nd consecutive season, I predict Bottas to be last of the full time drivers. This isn’t to do with Bottas’ ability, but more to do with the machine under him. I would be very surprised if Cadillac score any points, and with Perez being the better driver in the race, I think Bottas will be at the foot of the table. However, I do believe he will beat Perez in the qualifying head to head.

P21 – Sergio Perez

Very similar to Bottas. The car that he’s in will struggle to even get into Q2, and I doubt he’ll score any points. So why is he above Bottas? Well as I said with Bottas, while Perez will be worse in qualifying, Perez has a better chance of getting a better performance in the race. I can see these two be separated by 1 P13 finish in a chaotic race.

P20 – Lance Stroll

Stroll has shown glimpses of talent in midfield machinery, but with Aston Martin looking as bad as they are, points will be a luxury for Stroll. While I do believe the team will improve over the season, I cannot see Stroll getting anywhere near enough out of the car to challenge for points. If he were to get points, I can only see them coming in a wet and/or chaotic race.

P19 – Nico Hulkenberg

Coming off a successful season with Sauber, where he finally achieved his first podium, I am predicting a step back for Hulkenberg. He is in the twilight of his career, and he’s in a team learning how to survive in F1 as a constructor as well as having an exciting teammate who is only going to get better. If things don’t go well, I can see this being his last year in the sport.

P18 – Arvid Lindblad

The only rookie on the grid this season, and I think it’s going to be a season for learning. In F2 last year, Arvid showed genuine pace and ability, but nowhere near consistently enough. I think he will have strong performances throughout the season, he will struggle in other races. Hopefully by the end of the season, he will start performing consistently, similar to Antonelli. And who knows, he could have a year similar to Hadjar.

P17 – Gabriel Bortoleto

I am predicting a step up for the young Brazilian this year. Last season showed us his talent over 1 lap and glimpses of his talent over a race distance over the European leg. This season I can see him starting to beat Hulkenberg more consistently and get the occasional good points finish.

P16 – Alex Albon

What a disappointing start 2026 is looking like for Williams, and I think this slow start will reflect in the driver’s standings. After and incredibly impressive 2025 for Albon, I believe 2026 will be a step back for him, with the hope for the team is a major improvement at the end of the season that he can build on.

P15 – Franco Colapinto

2026 will be an improvement for Franco, who I believe will score points on a semi consistent basis. However, I don’t believe that he will challenge his teammate this season and could find himself out of a seat at the end of the season. Whether he gets another chance after that is to be seen.

P14 – Fernando Alonso

In what I believe will be his last season in the sport, I think it will be a recovery season for Fernando. The one thing we do know is that he’ll get far more out of this car than his teammate and at the end of the season I believe he could have some big performances to end his career on a relative high. Overall, I think it’ll be a very disappointing ending for an F1 great.

P13 – Liam Lawson

A very solid season for Lawson. I believe he will now take up the role previously held by Gasly and Tsunoda – the test for any young Red Bull driver. I do believe that Lindblad will have higher highs, but also lower lows, so Lawson’s relative consistency means I think he’ll get the better of him over 24 races.

P12 – Carlos Sainz

You have to feel bad for Sainz. Was promised the world when he joined Williams, and now it looks like they’ve taken a major step back. I still trust that he will drag out great performances and get himself up to 12th by the end of the year, but he would’ve been hoping for so much more.

P11 – Esteban Ocon

Another year where Ocon gets beaten by his teammate, and this time it might end his Formula 1 career for good. Despite this, I don’t think the gap between the Haas drivers will be drastic and Esteban will remain a top midfield driver this year. However, I just don’t believe he’ll have a major standout performance to get himself any higher.

P10 – Oliver Bearman

I believe that this is the year Bearman does enough to earn himself a Ferrari seat. I think he’ll be competing at the top of the midfield this season and score consistent points. However, with the quality of the top 4 teams, I think having performances as good as Mexico last year seem unlikely. However, I still think this year will be another step up for him.

P9 – Pierre Gasly

After an extremely frustrating 2025, I think that Gasly will reclaim his crown as the king of the midfield. In a year where the top 4 look miles ahead of everyone, I can see Gasly making P9 his own. It may not be the race winning car he wants, but it will be enough to score points in most races (assuming the reliability isn’t awful).

P8 – Isack Hadjar

After the disastrous season from Tsunoda in 2025, I think that Hadjar will do much better in the standings this year, even if the gap to Verstappen is still large. As the top 4 have pulled away, a large pace gap shouldn’t matter as much. He’ll be miles ahead of those behind but not particularly close to those ahead. A fairly anonymous season.

P7 – Lewis Hamilton

Hamilton is an all time Formula One great, but I think that 2025 will be his last. I do think he’ll get podiums this year and maybe even a win, but I don’t think he has enough to challenge those ahead of him consistently enough anymore. Prime Hamilton would’ve been fighting for the title, but he is years off his best now. He would’ve wanted more from himself in his last season but I just can’t see it in him anymore.

P6 – Oscar Piastri

As a Mclaren fan, predicting Piastri anywhere lower than joint first is painful. However, I just don’t think these cars will suit him. He has shown an inability to perform near his best in lower grip conditions, and, unfortunately for him, these regulations have very low grip. He will still get podiums this year and potentially a win or too, but I don’t think he’ll be fighting for a title.

P5 – Kimi Antonelli

2025 will be a step up in performance for Antonelli, but I still don’t think he’ll have the consistency of those above him. I think he’ll rack up a lot of podiums and achieve his first F1 win, but I still think it’s too soon to challenge the top 4 in the championship. I do think he could set himself up for a much stronger title charge in 2027.

P4 – Charles Leclerc

Ferrari have been the talk of the F1 world since testing, with Leclerc being the fastest by 8 tenths in testing. However, I don’t think the Ferrari will have enough to challenge for the title until the end. I do see him returning to the top step this season, with races like Monaco and Baku being races I can see him winning, but I don’t think he’ll have the car to go until the end.

P3 – Lando Norris

Again, it pains me not to put him at the top, but I don’t think Norris will retain his title this year. Mclaren look like they’ll start the season on the back foot, but I think you’d be a fool to doubt their development over the season. I can see Norris fighting for consistent wins at the end of the season but by then it will be too late. I think it’ll be a battle between Norris and Leclerc for 3rd, but with the weight off winning a title being lifted off him, I think Norris will have enough to just edge him.

P2 – George Russell

Despite being the pre-season favourite, I think Russell will just miss out on his maiden F1 title. I think it’ll be an incredibly close battle until the final races, and Russell will win multiple races. However, with this being his first title challenge, I believe cracks that we haven’t seen yet will start to appear and he’ll leave points on the table, which will allow Chucky to sneak in at the end.

P1 – Max Verstappen

Verstappen is very clearly the best driver in F1, and I believe that his talent and Red Bull’s ability to develop will put Verstappen at the top of the table at the end. This wouldn’t be an easy title at all for him, but he has shown his supreme ability and any driver will struggle to beat him, and this title will cement him as one of the best to ever do it.

Constructors:

P11 – Cadillac

2026 will be a year of learning for F1’s newest team. There goal will be to learn the tracks, learn the procedures and build a solid foundation to build on. I can’t see them scoring any points but, if the ownership are sensible, this shouldn’t be an issue. A solid, reliable year will feel like a win for this team

P10 – Aston Martin

What a complete mess this team is in. The engine doesn’t work, the gearbox doesn’t work and the car is apparently undriveable. Despite a bad start, I think they’ll recover to the midfield at the end and score some points with Alonso. For a team that promised so much, this would not be anywhere near good enough, especially considering the money that has been pumped in.

P9 – Audi

Similar to Cadillac in a way. As this is a brand new engine, this will be a year of learning for Audi. Their goal will be to make sure the engine is reliable and to build performance over the year through strong development. While another P9 might seem like stagnation for this team, if they can fully understand their engine, they could set themselves up for an exciting future.

P8 – Racing Bulls

The issue with having two young drivers is the fact that they’ll both leave points on the table. So while I feel like they’ll be solid in the midfield, they will drop too many points across 24 races and finish lower than the car potentially deserves. However, I doubt the team will care too much as this is just an academy team.

P7 – Williams

This would not have been the season Williams would’ve hoped for, but unfortunately it appears to be their reality. They’ll start the season as one of the slowest but I think they’ll end the year at the top of the midfield and just about get themselves up to 7th. Something needs to change quickly if they want to achieve their ambitions of being race winners again.

P6 – Alpine

While I believe Gasly will be at the top of the midfield, I don’t think Lapine will achieve the same. While they have the car, I believe that Colapinto won’t score enough points to get that extra prize money. If they improve their lineup going forward, they can make 5th their own going forward, but for now they’ll have to settle for 6th.

P5 – Haas

A combination of a strong driver lineup and a top midfield car will get Haas their joint best finish in F1. However, the cost of this will be the team losing their star driver in Bearman. This means that I believe it may only be 1 season this high, but who knows what the future holds for this team.

P4 – Ferrari

The gap between 4th and 5th will be huge, and I think Ferrari will be the team that just finishes 4th. It will be very close between P4-P2 but I think Ferrari haven’t shown enough over the past few years to achieve their potential. Despite no movement in the standings, I think this year will be much better than 2025 for the red team.

P3 – Red Bull

The issue with being team Max is the fact that you’ll suffer in the constructors. They will have a top quality car that only 1 driver can perform in, so it’ll be the same old story for Red Bull. If they win the drivers, I doubt they’ll care about the constructors. If the structure stays the same, I can’t see them winning the constructors any time soon.

P2 – Mclaren

The reigning champions will have a solid year, but miss out on first in the standings. A slow start will cost Mclaren over 24 races but there is a chance they end the year as the fastest. 2027 feels like a bigger opportunity for Mclaren but with F1, you never know as things can change so quickly. 

P1 – Mercedes

The pre season favourite may miss out on the drivers title, but they won’t miss out on the constructors. Russell being a title challenger while Antonelli establishes himself among the front runners, I can see this title win being somewhat similar to 2024, just not as close. After 4 years of not challenging, I believe Mercedes will show the world why they were title winners for 8 consecutive years.