Embedded Files
Adding Perez, Bottas, and Lindblad to the model
8th December 2025
The story so far...
The 2025 season is done. Lando Norris has the shiny trophy, but if you look at the raw numbers, Max Verstappen is still the boss of the database (ELO 1863 vs 1803).
But now we have a problem. The 2026 regulations are here. New engines, active aero, and cars that require a whole new way of driving. And we have three "new" drivers entering our dataset. Two veterans in a brand new Cadillac team. One rookie in a Red Bull pressure cooker.
How do we assign a number to them without just guessing? Let's look at the logic.
The Checo Reset (Sergio Perez)
New Team: Cadillac Status: Returning from a gap year
The Problem We can't just copy-paste his 2024 stats. By the end of 2024, Checo was broken. The data shows he was 50-70 points below his actual skill ceiling because of the "Red Bull Meat Grinder" effect. He took 2025 off. History tells us (Prost, Alonso, Kimi) that a year off is a great way to fix burnout.
The Fix We are applying a "Restoration Coefficient." Basically, we ignore the bad data from late 2024. We treat him as a "Midfield King" again—the guy who was amazing at Sauber and Force India. The 2026 cars need tire saving and clever energy management. That is literally Checo's entire thing.
The Numbers
Base Rating: 1720 (The old Checo)
Rust Penalty: -40 (He hasn't raced in a year)
Age Decay: -30 (Father Time is undefeated)
Motivation Bonus: +20 (He actually wants to be there)
Starting ELO: 1660
Implied Rating: 86
Rank: Solid Midfield. Comparable to Albon and Bearman.
The Mercedes Insider (Valtteri Bottas)
New Team: Cadillac Status: Promoted from Reserve
Wait, wasn't he retired? Not really. Unlike Perez, Bottas spent 2025 working. He was the Mercedes reserve driver. He was in the sim. He was in the meetings. He knows how the 2026 cars work because he helped develop one of the best ones (presumably).
Why he rates higher He didn't rust. Reserve drivers who actually do the work (like Ocon or Albon did) often come back sharper. Plus, Bottas is a qualifying machine. In a new team like Cadillac, putting the car P12 instead of P16 is worth its weight in gold.
The Numbers
Base Rating: 1740 (Always a bit faster than Checo over one lap)
Age Decay: -30 (This might be the most experienced lineup in F1 history)
Rust Penalty: -10 (Barely any, thanks to the sim)
Cadillac "New Team" Penalty: -10 points. (What do you mean Toto isn't making him tea?)
Leadership Bonus: +15 (He's the reference point)
Starting ELO: 1705
Implied Rating: 88
Rank: Upper Midfield. He's knocking on the door of the top tier. Comparable to Alonso and Sainz.
The Wildcard (Arvid Lindblad)
New Team: Racing Bulls Status: Rookie
Raw Speed vs. The Wall This is the hardest one to model. Lindblad is fast. Seriously fast. He won the Feature AND Sprint at Silverstone in F3. But he finished 6th in F2. He is the definition of "Boom or Bust."
The Rookie Tax The ELO model hates volatility. If you win one race and crash in the next, the math punishes you. He is entering the Red Bull family, which is famous for chewing up rookies. The car is good (Racing Bulls finished 6th), which means he has no excuses.
The Numbers
Base Rating: 1600 (Based on junior speed)
Rookie Penalty: -40 (He doesn't know the tires yet)
Red Bull Bonus: +30 (He's well trained)
Chaos Tax: -10 (He's going to crash a few times)
Starting ELO: 1570
Implied Rating: 82
Rank: Lower Midfield Tier. He has to prove he belongs. Comparable to Bortoleto.
Summary
So, here is how the database looks for the start of 2026.
Cadillac isn't messing around. Statistically, their driver lineup is already better than Haas, Alpine (Until Gasly stops messing around anyway) , and RB. Lindblad has a steep hill to climb. And Max is still Max.
Page updated
Google Sites
Report abuse